Market Overview
Size, concentration, and forecast through 2035
- Brevintel analysis values the global artillery systems market at USD 21.4 billion in 2025 ($21.4B), projecting USD 36.2 billion by 2035 ($36.2B) at a CAGR of approximately 5.5% from 2026 to 2035.
- The market enters the forecast period at USD 22,389.7 million in 2026 (about USD 22.4 billion), supported by elevated geopolitical risk, NATO rearmament, precision long-range fires demand, and Asia Pacific and Middle East modernization.
- Hanwha Defense (Hanwha Aerospace) led with over 12.5% market share in 2025; the top five—Hanwha Defense, BAE Systems plc, Rheinmetall AG, Lockheed Martin Corp., and General Dynamics Corp.—held 46.3%.
- Top-five concentration is approximately 50% of 2025 global revenue, with a fragmented second tier of regional producers in South Korea, France, Israel, and India gaining export traction.
- Global military expenditure reached USD 2,718 billion in 2024, a 9.4% real-terms increase and the steepest year-on-year rise since at least 1988, with spending up in all five geographic regions for a second consecutive year.
- NATO's 32 members spent about USD 1,588 billion in 2025 at current prices, or an estimated 2.76% of combined GDP; by 2025 an estimated 31 of 32 allies meet or surpass the 2% threshold, up from 18 in 2024.
- European allies and Canada collectively increased defense spending by approximately 20% in 2025 versus the prior year, translating into howitzer, rocket artillery, and munitions procurement.
- Coverage spans howitzers, mortars, rocket artillery, anti-aircraft guns, and associated systems across ground, naval, and air defense for 2022–2025 historic and 2026–2035 forecast periods in USD million.
Operational reset and industrial bottlenecks
- Ukraine conflict lessons validated large-caliber tube artillery, guided rockets, and responsive fire control, exposing stockpile gaps Western and partner forces are closing under compressed timelines.
- Indo-Pacific dynamics—China's power projection, Japan's counterstrike doctrine, and India's contested borders—add a durable Asia Pacific demand layer alongside NATO rearmament.
- Wheeled, autonomous, network-connected platforms with precision munitions compatibility are the dominant technology vector through 2035.
- Supply friction in propellant chemistry, fire control electronics, and rare-earth-dependent guidance keeps production below stated demand, tempering the ~5.5% CAGR path to USD 36.2 billion ($36.2B).
Market Dynamics
Growth drivers
- Multilateral procurement and co-production are accelerating: NATO joint contracts totaling USD 1.2 billion in January 2024 for 155mm rounds consolidated demand across allies.
- South Korea leveraged partnerships for the about USD 2.4 billion K9A1 deal with Poland (2022), nearly USD 1 billion K9/K10 with Romania (2024), and USD 254 million K9 Vajra-T follow-on with India (2025).
- Ukraine-derived counter-battery data imply seven to eight minutes from emplacement to first displacement, favoring self-propelled guns with digital fire control and BMS connectivity.
- Germany's December 2025 commitment to 84 RCH 155 wheeled howitzers (EUR 1.2 billion; framework up to 500) and Lithuania's CAESAR Mk II buy (EUR 252 million) underscore mobility priorities.
- Sweden's 48-system Archer 8×8 order and U.S. Army SPH modernization after April 2024 ERCA cancellation prioritize extended range, autonomy, and mobility.
- India's March 2025 ATAGS contract—307 guns, about INR 6,900 crore, 60:40 Bharat Forge and Tata Advanced Systems—anchors indigenous heavy artillery production.
- Saudi Vision 2030 targets localizing 50% of defense spending by 2030 from about 19.35% in 2024, opening co-production for platforms and ammunition.
- Network-centric warfare programs such as U.S. Army NGC2/AXS compress sensor-to-shooter latency from minutes toward seconds, differentiating platforms that integrate into JADC2-class architectures.
Restraints
- ITAR, MTCR (500 kg payloads beyond 300 km), and Wassenaar Munitions List controls lengthen export licensing and complicate FMS for guided rockets and fire control electronics.
- An August 2025 U.S. Munitions List final rule effective September 15, 2025 continues iterative ITAR recalibration and compliance burden for producers and buyers.
- European nitrocellulose output is estimated at 4,500–10,000 tonnes annually versus combined Ukraine and European needs near 20,000 tonnes—a gap up to about 14,000 tonnes—with roughly 70% of European supply historically imported from China.
- China controls about 85% of rare earth processing and over 90% of rare earth magnet production; April 2025 licensing on seven critical elements risks six- to eighteen-month delays on guided munitions and fire control.
- About 88% of DoD critical mineral supply chains carry Chinese-sourced exposure, amplifying allied production risk through 2035.
- Nitrocellulose plant builds take five to seven years and non-China rare earth processing needs roughly a decade of policy support, capping near-term ramp rates despite strong budgets.
Segmentation Analysis
By system type
- Howitzers led system types at USD 8,068.7 million in 2025 and are forecast to reach USD 13,782.7 million by 2035 (CAGR ~5.6%), with howitzers holding about 37.7% share in 2025.
- Wheeled self-propelled howitzers are the fastest howitzer sub-variant; Germany's 84-unit RCH 155 (EUR 1.2 billion) and Lithuania's CAESAR Mk II illustrate the transition from tracked systems.
- India's 307-unit ATAGS 155mm/52-caliber towed program sustains towed volume in high-altitude and budget-sensitive theaters.
- Rocket artillery is the fastest system type, rising from USD 6,591.9 million in 2025 to USD 12,580.8 million by 2035 (CAGR ~6.8%), with HIMARS enabling 70+ km precision effects in Ukraine.
- HIMARS demand spans Poland (20 launchers), Australia (22 requested), Italy (21 in 2025), the Netherlands (20), and a U.S. Army USD 742 million production contract in May 2025.
- Anti-aircraft guns stand at USD 2,013.9 million in 2025, growing to USD 3,175.8 million by 2035 (CAGR ~4.8%) as SHORAD guns counter FPV drones and loitering munitions.
- Mortars expand from USD 1,780.5 million in 2025 to USD 2,561.7 million by 2035 (CAGR ~3.8%), with 100mm–120mm medium mortars the primary procurement focus across NATO, Asia, and the Middle East.
By platform, range, component, caliber, and end-user
- Self-propelled platforms dominate new buys; the U.S. Army awarded BAE Systems USD 493 million in August 2024 for M109A7/M992A3 production from August 2025 through July 2026.
- CAESAR exceeds 600 systems in service or under contract across eleven operator nations, reinforcing wheeled SPH commercial appeal versus heavier tracked logistics.
- Long-range systems (above 30 km) rise from USD 9,265.3 million in 2025 to USD 16,997.8 million by 2035 (CAGR ~6.4%); SPH-M targets 50–70 km after ERCA/XM1299 cancellation in April 2024.
- Medium-range (15–30 km) retains the largest share: USD 7,743.4 million in 2025 to USD 12,708.4 million by 2035 (CAGR ~5.2%); short-range grows ~4.0% from USD 4,420.5 million to USD 6,516.2 million.
- Gun systems lead component value; ammunition is the largest expenditure volume, anchored by Germany's USD 9.1 billion Rheinmetall 155mm framework (June 2024) and EUR 8.5 billion Bundeswehr ammunition framework.
- Medium caliber (100mm–155mm) dominates unit and value share; small caliber (below 100mm) covers 81mm/120mm mortars and SHORAD guns; large caliber above 155mm remains niche after ERCA's 155mm/58-caliber exit.
- Army and ground forces lead end-users at USD 14,473.5 million in 2025 (67.5% share), forecast USD 25,758.6 million by 2035 (CAGR ~6.0%).
- Air defense forces grow from USD 3,020.3 million to USD 4,844.7 million (CAGR ~4.9%); naval from USD 2,295.8 million to USD 3,366.0 million (~4.0%); border/paramilitary from USD 1,639.5 million to USD 2,253.1 million (~3.3%).
Regional Outlook
North America and Europe
- North America leads at USD 7,655.3 million in 2025 (35.7% share), forecast USD 14,453.9 million by 2035 at about 6.7% CAGR—the highest regional growth rate in the study.
- The United States accounts for USD 6,986.3 million in 2025 against a roughly USD 997 billion 2024 defense budget; Canada contributes USD 669.0 million while raising spending toward the 2% NATO threshold.
- Lockheed Martin received a USD 742 million HIMARS contract in May 2025 covering U.S. and FMS buyers including Morocco, Australia, Latvia, Italy, Norway, and Croatia.
- Europe is USD 5,088.9 million in 2025, growing to USD 7,862.2 million by 2035 (CAGR ~4.5%), with Germany at USD 1,345.7 million and the UK at USD 1,094.8 million.
- France (USD 855.6 million) contracted 109 CAESAR Mk II; Poland completed 212 K9A1 under USD 2.4 billion and is executing a second USD 2.6 billion deal for 152 K9/K9PL systems.
- Italy (USD 655.2 million) purchased 21 HIMARS in early 2025; Spain is USD 448.3 million and the Netherlands USD 236.5 million under NATO commitments.
- Germany ordered 22 new PzH 2000 to replenish Ukraine transfers, with EUR 135 million in undercarriage and L52 gun components from Rheinmetall.
Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East & Africa
- Asia Pacific holds USD 6,335.2 million in 2025, forecast USD 10,607.8 million by 2035 at about 5.4% CAGR, the most durable long-term regional trajectory.
- China leads APAC at USD 2,704.6 million in 2025; PCL-181 fielding is estimated near 600 PLA units plus about 300 SH-15 exports to Pakistan.
- India (USD 1,692.9 million) combines ATAGS (INR 6,900 crore) with December 2024 K9 Vajra-T follow-on (100 guns, INR 7,628.70 crore via L&T) and Pinaka rocket inductions.
- South Korea (USD 744.1 million) exports K9 across Poland, Romania, India, Estonia, Norway, Finland, Australia, Turkey, and Egypt; Japan is USD 459.4 million and Australia USD 175.1 million.
- Japan is testing Vulcano 155mm guided shells at ranges up to 75 km from 2025 under its 2022 counterstrike doctrine.
- Latin America is USD 1,334.1 million in 2025 to USD 1,827.0 million by 2035 (CAGR ~3.3%); Brazil leads at USD 599.8 million with ATMOS 36 units (~USD 150–200 million); Mexico USD 445.5 million; Argentina USD 105.6 million.
- MEA is USD 1,015.7 million in 2025 to USD 1,471.5 million by 2035 (CAGR ~3.9%); Saudi Arabia USD 331.8 million (military spend USD 80.3 billion in 2024, 7.3% of GDP; ~USD 78 billion 2025 budget); UAE USD 327.6 million; South Africa USD 111.0 million.
- UAE received October 2024 U.S. approval for a USD 1.2 billion FMS of GMLRS and ATACMS; Denel is executing a G6 upgrade near ZAR 2 billion and pursuing a potential ZAR 15 billion T5-52 contract.
Competitive Landscape
Market structure and company positions
- Five largest companies account for approximately 50% of 2025 global revenue; Brevintel analysis places Hanwha Defense near 12.5%, BAE Systems and Rheinmetall near 11.5% each, Lockheed Martin near 7.8%, Nexter/KNDS near 6.5%, and General Dynamics near 5.7%.
- BAE Systems sustains M109A7 via the USD 493 million August 2024 award and Archer 8×8 for Sweden/UK/Ukraine; Sweden ordered 18 additional Archers in 2025 for Ukraine aid with deliveries from 2026.
- Lockheed Martin's May 2025 USD 742 million HIMARS award plus a USD 220 million May 2024 M270A2 upgrade modification lock platform and munitions (ATACMS, GMLRS, PrSM) revenue.
- Rheinmetall's EUR 8.5 billion June 2024 155mm ammunition framework is its largest order; RCH 155 via ARTEC (KNDS–Rheinmetall) starts with 84 systems under EUR 1.2 billion within a 500-system framework.
- Hanwha milestones include USD 996 million Romania K9/K10 (54 howitzers, 36 K10, July 2024), 212 K9A1 deliveries to Poland, USD 280 million Krab chassis for HSW, and USD 254 million India K9 Vajra-T.
- KNDS CAESAR exceeds 600 systems across more than ten nations; France's 109 CAESAR Mk II and Czech 62 CAESAR 8×8 (serial production from June 2025) deepen wheeled SPH share.
- General Dynamics Ordnance & Tactical Systems remains a primary U.S. 155mm M795 and MACS supplier across concurrent multi-hundred-million-dollar delivery orders.
Recent industry developments
- December 2025: Germany committed 84 RCH 155 under EUR 1.2 billion with deliveries from 2027 for Medium Forces concepts.
- April 2025: Hanwha signed USD 254 million K9 Vajra-T for 100 India units via L&T alongside USD 280 million Krab chassis for Poland's HSW.
- March 2025: India MoD contracted Bharat Forge (184 ATAGS) and Tata Advanced Systems (123 ATAGS) for 307 guns at about INR 6,900 crore.
- February 2025: Morocco ordered 36 ATMOS 2000 from Elbit at about EUR 175 million; Yugoimport began 48 NORA B-52NG deliveries to Azerbaijan under USD 339 million.
- February 2025: Bharat Forge KSSL signed an IDEX Letter of Intent with AM General for U.S.-market cannon supply.
- June–August 2024: Rheinmetall EUR 8.5 billion ammo framework; Hanwha USD 996 million Romania K9/K10; BAE USD 493 million M109A7/M992A3 production.
- April 2024: U.S. Army discontinued ERCA/XM1299 and redirected to SPH-M commercial evaluation for 50–70 km range.
Global primes
- Hanwha Defense (Hanwha Aerospace)
- BAE Systems plc
- Rheinmetall AG
- Lockheed Martin Corp
- General Dynamics Corp
- Nexter Systems (KNDS Group)
Regional and emerging producers
- Elbit Systems
- Bharat Forge Limited
- Tata Advanced Systems Limited
- Yugoimport SDPR
- Denel SOC Ltd.
- PT Pindad